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1. INVESTMENT CASE
2. BUSINESS PROFILE
3. Executive summary
Motor Sich: On the edge of a strong up-cycle
Outlook for Motor Sich by sector
Helicopter segment: +70% by 2015
Airplane segment: +200% by 2016
New markets, More opportunities
Even a cautious outlook means great things
Valuation summary: MSICH implied price, USD
Acquisition target
4. Motor Sich: Key to Russia's aeronautic ambitions
Program to resurrect the Russian aviation sector
Global markets bode well
Higher demand growth from emerging markets
Passenger aircraft in hot demand
Cargo transportation: Growth leader
Helicopter demand: CAGR 8.5% over 4 years
Motor Sich's joint projects with Russia
TB3-117 and VK-2500 series engines: Fit most Russian helicopters
D-436 projects
Regional passenger jets
Be-200 Amphibian
D-18T engines: An-124-100M Ruslan
AI-222-25 engine: Yak-130
5. Getting it done - corporate strategies
All Russian assets go together
6. Partnering with EADS
EADS buys 10% of Irkut
Russia's response: VTB buys 6% of EADS
Major task: Targeting Motor Sich
Motor Sich: Not going to roll over easily
VK-2500: Motor Sich's golden ticket
What does the Russian Holding mean for Motor Sich?
‘Motor Sich acquired by the Russian Holding' scenario - implications for minorities
Upgrade in corporate governance
The buyer may opt for partial asset reallocation
No acquisition: ‘Survival-of-the-fittest' scenario
7. Self-sufficient player
D-36 engine for the An-74: Old, But still hot
TV3-117 VMA SBM1 engine for the Ukrainian An-140
Chinese projects: AI-25 family of engines
Cooperation with India
The MTA project
MS-400 engines: UAV project
A successful engine - the hen that lays golden eggs
Motor Sich after-market business capacity
Market is controlled by Motor Sich
Reincarnation of an engine
Electricity generation sets
Gas turbines
Other business directions
Consumer goods
Aviation company: Motor Sich Avia
8. DCF valuation
Impact of high operating leverage
Basic model assumptions
Common assumptions for the three scenarios:
Specific assumptions:
Terminal value assumptions:
Our approach is conservative
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
9. Peer valuation
Traded peers