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1. Stock market
Steels at a glance
KSTL as a defensive play on the bearish Ukrainian market
Share buybacks by ArcelorMittal
AM Kryviy Rih as a dividend play?
2. Juncture for upstream & downstream expansion
New management team brought into the fold
+60% to iron ore output, eyeing oxidized ore resources
+47% to steel production, broadening product profile
Regional hub for the group's growth
3. Margin expansion on low cost and strong prices
Profitability: above industry average, will strengthen in 2008
Cash costs will stay below the industry average
Revenues will rise along with a strong up-cycle
4. Steel market: Robust demand vs. supply constraints
5. Valuation
Comparison by financial multiples
Comparison to ArcelorMittal-labelled companies
EV/Steel Output multiple comparison
Sum-of-the-parts valuation
DCF valuation
DCF models
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
6. Appendices
Iron ore seaborne market concentration and historical prices
Quarterly financial statements
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
Projected financials
Income statement summary, USD mln
Balance sheet summary, USD mln
UAH/USD Exchange Rates
Despite SPF's claim, reprivatization risk is low
Analyst Certification
ArcelorMittal Kriviy Rih*
KSTL Recommendation history, USD per share
Investment Ratings